Creative Aging: The Aging of the Boomer Bubble
“Well, the big elephant in the whole system is the baby boomer generation that marches through like a herd of elephants.” —Senator Lindsey Graham
Born in 1948, I am on the leading edge of the baby boomer bubble. We are so named because of the boom in births after soldiers returned home from World War II. Often our name is shortened to just boomers.
Baby boomers were born between 1946 and 1964, so we range in age from 58 to 76 years in age. There are 71.6 million of us in the United States.
Because of that bubble of boomers and because of lengthening life spans for older adults, an ever increasing percentage of older people is predicted. In 1950, just 8 percent of the US population was over 65. In 2019, that percentage rose to 16 percent. By 2050, it is projected to rise to 25 percent.
What to name this coming bubble has become controversial. The terms “silver (or gray) tsunami” (and variations such as “age wave” and “gray horde”) first appeared in the 1980s in reference to population aging. Around 2010 silver tsunami started becoming the widely accepted shorthand used by demographers, economists, and other writers concerned about aging populations.
Some writers object to the term as ageist and overly dramatic. A tsunami is not predictable, they say. An aging population can be foreseen and prepared for.
Senior advocate Ashton Applewhite wrote, “The phrase [silver tsunami] summons a frankly terrifying vision of a giant wave of old people looming on the horizon, poised to drain the public coffers, swamp the health care system, and suck the wealth of future generations out to sea.”
Writers have suggested kinder names such as “gray bloom,” “elderswell,” and “eldersurge.” Perhaps the term “aging boomer bubble,” which I used for this column, would work. However, none of these terms have the simplicity and attention-getting drama of “silver tsunami.”
Does the tsunami term raise unnecessary fears?
In some areas, it would seem so. Experts have predicted that the aging boomer bubble will cause a glut of houses for sale and significantly depreciate the housing market. They have also predicted that, as boomers retire, there will be a knowledge shortage in business and government. Neither of these predictions shows signs of coming true. Boomers are tending to keep their houses and age in place. And more of them are extending their working years, so the dearth of knowledge may not be as severe as predicted.
Also predicted was a shortage of specialized housing for seniors. There is currently no shortage of private-pay aging communities or assisted living housing. There are sufficient nursing home beds.
Predictions on what will happen to our national productivity are mixed. Some experts say that with a lower percentage of working adults, our GDP will fall. But a study of European populations that are aging ahead of the US has shown no correlation between an aging population and a drop in productivity.
However, there are some worrying shortages. A staffing shortage is causing nursing homes to limit their admissions. Low-income housing for older adults is already in short supply. One study predicts that the number of homeless people over 65 will triple in the next decade.
Experts have also predicted that as the older population has increasing health care needs, the US health care system will be overwhelmed. A health care shortage remains an significant concern.
Perhaps the tsunami term is overly dramatic and triggers unnecessary fear. On the other hand, perhaps those in power should begin preparing for a further. increase in the senior population. It is time to prepare additional care centers and low-income senior housing. Maybe drama is necessary to spur action.
Sharona Hoffman, author of Aging with a Plan, suggests swift government action to adjust to the increase: Make long-term care insurance more accessible; perhaps subsidize it. Improve the working conditions of professional caregivers to combat the worker shortage. Increase affordable public transportation to permit the frail old to have more independence when they lose driver’s licenses. Offer incentives to health care professionals to encourage them to practice geriatrics.
A low-cost housing shortage is already upon us. Government could provide financial incentives for contractors can encourage the building of lower-cost homes. It could reduce restrictions on loans for condo purchases, making small condos available for first-time home-buyers. Data show that there are millions of low- and moderate-income people who qualify for a mortgage. We simply need available housing for them.
Instead of debating what term is appropriate, perhaps we can lobby our local, state, and national governments to prepare health care and housing for the coming bubble regardless of whether or not it will resemble a tsunami. We can also stay tuned for further developments as time goes on.